Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek Brunson
oldest →W
vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22 Dricus Du Plessis
oldest →W
vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24W
SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24W
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25W
DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricDricus Du Plessis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derek BrunsonDricus Du Plessis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -87.7|Blue +87.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +301.0|Blue -301.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derek BrunsonTargetDricus Du Plessis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Dricus Du Plessis rounds
Round 1Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control2:28
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:55Control
Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
62Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:30Control
1Knockdowns
