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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Mauricio Ruffy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1553

Elo1476

Mauricio RuffyvsJames LlontopUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Mauricio Ruffy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fightervsJames Llontop: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Ruffy at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Ruffy has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mauricio Ruffy

Red Corner

James Llontop

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+650

(13%)

1553

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mauricio RuffyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24

KOvs King Green · Mar 25

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jan 26

KOvs Michael Chandler · Jun 26

latest

James LlontopL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Padilla · Apr 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mauricio RuffyMetricJames Llontop

4.19

Strikes / min

5.57

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.12

58%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

85%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mauricio RuffyJames Llontop

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)James Llontop(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.8|Blue -76.8

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mauricio RuffyTargetJames Llontop

By target zone

55% acc · 79%

Head

20% acc · 32%

75% acc · 9%

Body

63% acc · 43%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

71% acc · 24%

By position

56% acc · 85%

Distance

35% acc · 83%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

71% acc · 17%

78% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mauricio Ruffy rounds

even

James Llontop rounds

Round 1Mauricio Ruffy edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mauricio Ruffy edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3James Llontop edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:02

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 113

Sig Strikes

90 / 236

59.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

74 / 120

Total Strikes

112 / 260

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	James Llontop	19 / 63	19 / 63	0 / 0
1	Mauricio Ruffy	21 / 31	21 / 31	0 / 0
2	James Llontop	26 / 78	28 / 80	0 / 2
2	Mauricio Ruffy	24 / 42	25 / 43	0 / 0
3	James Llontop	45 / 95	65 / 117	0 / 4
3	Mauricio Ruffy	22 / 40	28 / 46	0 / 0

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

James Llontop

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3