Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan Miller
oldest →W
vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10L
vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11L
vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11W
SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12L
KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13 Trevor SmithL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16W
vs Chris Camozzi · May 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · May 18L
vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18L
KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan MillerMetricTrevor Smith
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.03Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dan MillerTrevor Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Miller(8 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -23.6|Blue +23.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +602.0|Blue -602.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dan MillerTargetTrevor Smith
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:05
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:12Control
Round 2Trevor Smith edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:09Control
Round 3Trevor Smith edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
