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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Raposo won · Decision R3

Elo1523

Elo1527

Allan NascimentovsMitch RaposoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Mitch Raposo won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Allan Nascimento

Style matchupAllan Nascimento: Submission grapplervsMitch Raposo: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Allan Nascimento wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Mitch Raposo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Allan Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mitch Raposo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Allan Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Allan Nascimento

Red Corner

Mitch Raposo

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1523

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Allan NascimentoW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21

vs Jake Hadley · May 22

SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23

vs Jafel Filho · May 25

SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25

latest

Mitch Raposo

oldest →

vs Andre Lima · Jun 24

vs Sumudaerji · Apr 25

vs Azat Maksum · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Allan NascimentoMetricMitch Raposo

3.06

Strikes / min

1.73

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

52%

Strike defense

61%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

2.54

37%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.92

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Allan Nascimento(6 fights)Mitch Raposo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Allan NascimentoTargetMitch Raposo

By target zone

29% acc · 48%

Head

36% acc · 76%

68% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 24%

60% acc · 16%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 71%

Distance

42% acc · 97%

91% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

88% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Allan Nascimento rounds

even

Mitch Raposo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:24

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:26

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control3:31

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 142

Sig Strikes

38 / 89

42%

Sig Str %

43%

98 / 195

Total Strikes

54 / 108

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mitch Raposo	15 / 32	17 / 34	0 / 0
1	Allan Nascimento	14 / 54	15 / 56	0 / 3
2	Mitch Raposo	19 / 48	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Allan Nascimento	20 / 48	20 / 50	0 / 1
3	Mitch Raposo	4 / 9	17 / 25	0 / 1
3	Allan Nascimento	24 / 40	63 / 89	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 53% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Mitch Raposo

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4