Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
- Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris Weidman
oldest →W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24 Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris WeidmanMetricLyoto Machida
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.26Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris WeidmanLyoto Machida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +3.4|Blue -3.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris WeidmanTargetLyoto Machida
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:01
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:59
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control2:12
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Lyoto Machida edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:11
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:13
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
