Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jesus AguilarL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25 Luis Gurule
oldest →L
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25W
DECvs Daniel Barez · May 26L
SUBvs Rei Tsuruya · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jesus AguilarMetricLuis Gurule
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jesus AguilarLuis Gurule
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)Luis Gurule(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +54.2|Blue -54.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jesus AguilarTargetLuis Gurule
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jesus Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns1
Control0:18
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Luis Gurule edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:20
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
