Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bobby Moffett won · Overturned R2

Elo1495

Elo1375

Chas SkellyvsBobby MoffettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 10, 2018Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Bobby Moffett won

Overturned · Round 2 · 2:43

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsBobby Moffett: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Bobby Moffett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bobby Moffett has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bobby Moffett has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Bobby Moffett

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1495

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maximo Blanco · Sep 16

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Bobby MoffettL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bryce Mitchell · Mar 19

vs Enrique Barzola · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricBobby Moffett

2.01

Strikes / min

3.41

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

49%

Strike defense

61%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

2.74

39%

Takedown defense

66%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyBobby Moffett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Bobby Moffett(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.1|Blue -120.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetBobby Moffett

By target zone

47% acc · 87%

Head

28% acc · 65%

75% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

86% acc · 30%

By position

34% acc · 50%

Distance

35% acc · 90%

94% acc · 50%

Clinch

25% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Bobby Moffett rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control3:23

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bobby Moffett edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:15

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 60

Sig Strikes

20 / 56

45%

Sig Str %

35%

47 / 81

Total Strikes

21 / 57

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:38

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bobby Moffett	12 / 32	13 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Chas Skelly	24 / 40	41 / 61	1 / 2	0
2	Bobby Moffett	8 / 24	8 / 24	1 / 1	1
2	Chas Skelly	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0	0

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Bobby Moffett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3