Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derek Brunson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
- Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21 Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricDerek Brunson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jacare SouzaDerek Brunson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -53.9|Blue +53.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +196.0|Blue -196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jacare SouzaTargetDerek Brunson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jacare Souza edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
