Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Petrino won · U-DEC R3

Elo1543

Elo1481

Vitor PetrinovsAnton TurkaljUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vitor Petrino won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVitor Petrino: WrestlervsAnton Turkalj: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Vitor Petrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vitor Petrino enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Anton Turkalj enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vitor Petrino has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino

Red Corner

Anton Turkalj

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1543

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25

vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26

latest

Anton TurkaljL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Sep 22

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Sep 23

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricAnton Turkalj

3.24

Strikes / min

2.45

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

51%

Strike defense

54%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

4.98

79%

Takedown defense

16%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor PetrinoAnton Turkalj

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Anton Turkalj(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.8|Blue -61.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetAnton Turkalj

By target zone

41% acc · 69%

Head

53% acc · 58%

77% acc · 26%

Body

64% acc · 21%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

78% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 72%

Distance

49% acc · 67%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

82% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Petrino rounds

even

Anton Turkalj rounds

Round 1Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control2:25

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Anton Turkalj edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:36

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Anton Turkalj edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control2:12

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 82

Sig Strikes

33 / 56

44%

Sig Str %

58.3%

60 / 104

Total Strikes

69 / 95

7 / 9

TDs

5 / 15

77.3%

TD %

24.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:13

Ctrl Time

4:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anton Turkalj	10 / 19	31 / 40	0 / 1	0
1	Vitor Petrino	24 / 46	38 / 61	2 / 3	0
2	Anton Turkalj	10 / 18	19 / 30	3 / 9	0
2	Vitor Petrino	10 / 22	12 / 24	2 / 3	0
3	Anton Turkalj	13 / 19	19 / 25	2 / 5	0
3	Vitor Petrino	5 / 14	10 / 19	3 / 3	1

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Anton Turkalj

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4