Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joseph Morales threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Matt Schnell has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Schnell
oldest →L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26 Joseph Morales
oldest →W
SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18L
vs Eric Shelton · Nov 18W
SUBvs Alibi Idiris · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SchnellMetricJoseph Morales
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt SchnellJoseph Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Schnell(10 fights)Joseph Morales(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -67.0|Blue +67.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt SchnellTargetJoseph Morales
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:15
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:12Control
