Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Eddie Alvarez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eddie Alvarez
oldest →W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17 Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eddie AlvarezMetricDustin Poirier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Eddie AlvarezDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.6|Blue +2.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Eddie AlvarezTargetDustin Poirier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control2:27
Knockdowns0
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
