← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Clay GuidavsTatsuya KawajiriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · Friday, April 11, 2014Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsTatsuya Kawajiri: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuya Kawajiri at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Clay Guida has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Tatsuya KawajiriL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15

vs Jason Knight · Dec 15

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricTatsuya Kawajiri

2.63

Strikes / min

2.04

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

61%

Strike defense

50%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

3.63

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaTatsuya Kawajiri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.9|Blue -132.9

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetTatsuya Kawajiri

By target zone

46% acc · 38%

Head

38% acc · 95%

100% acc · 15%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 47%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

38% acc · 26%

Distance

28% acc · 63%

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

88% acc · 37%

95% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:18

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control4:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:41

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 68

Sig Strikes

19 / 51

69%

Sig Str %

39.3%

92 / 113

Total Strikes

36 / 68

3 / 10

TDs

1 / 5

54.7%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

8:59

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	4 / 12	6 / 14	1 / 2	0
1	Clay Guida	15 / 20	20 / 25	1 / 1	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	11 / 16	26 / 31	0 / 2	0
2	Clay Guida	14 / 21	23 / 30	1 / 7	0
3	Tatsuya Kawajiri	4 / 23	4 / 23	0 / 1	1
3	Clay Guida	18 / 27	49 / 58	1 / 2	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6