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Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felicia Spencer won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1470

Felicia SpencervsZarah FairnUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Felicia Spencer won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Felicia Spencer wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Felicia Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felicia Spencer at -870 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zarah Fairn enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zarah Fairn has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Zarah Fairn has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Felicia Spencer

Red Corner

Zarah Fairn

Blue Corner

-870

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+585

(15%)

1494

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Felicia Spencer

oldest →

SUBvs Megan Anderson · May 19

DECvs Cris Cyborg · Jul 19

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 20

vs Norma Dumont · May 21

KOvs Leah Letson · Nov 21

latest

Zarah FairnL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Oct 19

vs Josiane Nunes · Jan 23

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Felicia SpencerMetricZarah Fairn

3.21

Strikes / min

4.55

4.54

Strikes absorbed / min

7.40

45%

Strike defense

45%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.00

27%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.33Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Felicia SpencerZarah Fairn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Felicia Spencer(6 fights)Zarah Fairn(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Felicia SpencerTargetZarah Fairn

By target zone

62% acc · 95%

Head

44% acc · 92%

100% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 8%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 23%

Distance

46% acc · 92%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

77% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Felicia Spencer rounds

even

Zarah Fairn rounds

Round 1Felicia Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control2:20

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 64

Sig Strikes

13 / 28

62%

Sig Str %

46%

68 / 98

Total Strikes

14 / 29

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zarah Fairn	13 / 28	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Felicia Spencer	40 / 64	68 / 98	1 / 2	0

Felicia Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Zarah Fairn

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4