Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sultan Aliev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sultan Aliev
oldest →L
KOvs Kenny Robertson · Jan 15W
vs Bojan Velickovic · Dec 16L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 18 Keita Nakamura
oldest →W
SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18W
vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sultan AlievMetricKeita Nakamura
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.79evenly matched on net striking-0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sultan AlievKeita Nakamura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sultan Aliev(4 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sultan AlievTargetKeita Nakamura
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sultan Aliev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:52
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:53
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Sultan Aliev edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control2:01
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
