Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Grant Dawson threatens submissions; Mark Madsen has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Grant Dawson
oldest →W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26 Mark Madsen
oldest →W
KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19W
vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20L
KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Grant DawsonMetricMark Madsen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Grant DawsonMark Madsen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +41.4|Blue -41.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Grant DawsonTargetMark Madsen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control4:22
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 2Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:22
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:47
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
