Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1506
Elo1367
Jeremy Kimball

Marcos Rogerio de LimavsJeremy KimballUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:27

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jeremy Kimball has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jeremy Kimball (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Red Corner
VS
Jeremy Kimball
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1506
Elo
1367
41
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima
oldest →
L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22
W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22
W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23
W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24
latest
Jeremy KimballL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Josh Stansbury · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 17
L
KOvs Darko Stosic · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaMetricJeremy Kimball
3.70
Strikes / min
2.81
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.84
51%
Strike defense
49%
1.40
TDs / 15 min
1.41
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1511 vs 1500Strikes12.2 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.60 vs —Form-0.2 vs 0.0
Marcos Rogerio de LimaJeremy Kimball

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)Jeremy Kimball(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.5|Blue -139.5
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcos Rogerio de LimaTargetJeremy Kimball

By target zone

6
35% acc · 50%
Head
3
21% acc · 60%
2
67% acc · 17%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
4
80% acc · 33%
Leg
1
50% acc · 20%

By position

7
39% acc · 58%
Distance
5
29% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
5
71% acc · 42%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds
0
even
0
Jeremy Kimball rounds
Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:04
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 25
Sig Strikes
5 / 17
48%
Sig Str %
29%
12 / 25
Total Strikes
5 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jeremy Kimball5 / 175 / 170 / 00
1Marcos Rogerio de Lima12 / 2512 / 250 / 00

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Jeremy Kimball

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4