Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Robbie Lawler has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Robbie Lawler has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie LawlerW2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23 Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricBryan Barberena
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.82Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Robbie LawlerBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +7.6|Blue -7.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Robbie LawlerTargetBryan Barberena
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bryan Barberena edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:00
67Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control0:00
80Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
