Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Simpson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ronny Markes has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron Simpson
oldest →W
vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11W
vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12 Ronny MarkesL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Karlos Vemola · Aug 11W
vs Andrew Craig · Jan 13L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Nov 13L
KOvs Thiago Santos · Mar 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron SimpsonMetricRonny Markes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.07Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aaron SimpsonRonny Markes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Ronny Markes(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +137.2|Blue -137.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aaron SimpsonTargetRonny Markes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control1:28
Knockdowns1
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Ronny Markes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:55
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:09Control
Round 3Ronny Markes edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:05
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:16Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
