Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ryan Bader has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18 Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lyoto MachidaMetricRyan Bader
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Lyoto MachidaRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Lyoto MachidaTargetRyan Bader
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
