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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Julianna Pena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1496

Cat ZinganovsJulianna PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Julianna Pena wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julianna Pena at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julianna Pena has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cat Zingano has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cat Zingano (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cat Zingano

Red Corner

Julianna Pena

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cat Zingano

oldest →

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Sep 14

SUBvs Ronda Rousey · Feb 15

vs Ketlen Vieira · Mar 18

vs Marion Reneau · Jul 18

KOvs Megan Anderson · Dec 18

latest

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cat ZinganoMetricJulianna Pena

2.57

Strikes / min

3.10

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.56

47%

Strike defense

57%

2.77

TDs / 15 min

1.70

42%

Takedown defense

24%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cat ZinganoJulianna Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cat Zingano(7 fights)Julianna Pena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.9|Blue +4.9

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cat ZinganoTargetJulianna Pena

By target zone

33% acc · 55%

Head

47% acc · 67%

100% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 27%

Distance

14% acc · 8%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

75% acc · 55%

Ground

82% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cat Zingano rounds

even

Julianna Pena rounds

Round 1Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:15

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 2Cat Zingano edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control3:15

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control4:34

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 23

Sig Strikes

12 / 21

42.3%

Sig Str %

38%

23 / 37

Total Strikes

129 / 150

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 3

75%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

9:04

Ctrl Time

4:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julianna Pena	3 / 9	53 / 61	1 / 2	0
1	Cat Zingano	9 / 17	16 / 24	1 / 2	0
2	Julianna Pena	0 / 1	25 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Cat Zingano	1 / 2	5 / 7	2 / 2	0
3	Julianna Pena	9 / 11	51 / 61	1 / 1	1
3	Cat Zingano	1 / 4	2 / 6	0 / 0	0

Cat Zingano

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12