Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jai Herbert is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
- Jai Herbert has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jai Herbert
oldest →L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25W
KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26 Kyle Nelson
oldest →W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jai HerbertMetricKyle Nelson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jai HerbertKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jai Herbert(9 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +15.6|Blue -15.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -553.0|Blue +553.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jai HerbertTargetKyle Nelson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:18
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 2Jai Herbert edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control1:11
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:59Control
Round 3Jai Herbert edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control3:28
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
