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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tim Means won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1364

Tim MeansvsSabah HomasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Means won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:56

Style matchupTim Means: Pressure fightervsSabah Homasi: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Tim Means wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Means has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tim Means

Red Corner

Sabah Homasi

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1492

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Sabah HomasiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Dec 17

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim MeansMetricSabah Homasi

5.04

Strikes / min

4.98

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

6.91

60%

Strike defense

47%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.80

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim MeansSabah Homasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Means(10 fights)Sabah Homasi(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.1|Blue -128.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim MeansTargetSabah Homasi

By target zone

56% acc · 80%

Head

36% acc · 76%

80% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 12%

By position

59% acc · 76%

Distance

38% acc · 85%

65% acc · 24%

Clinch

83% acc · 15%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Means rounds

even

Sabah Homasi rounds

Round 1Sabah Homasi edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:08

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 118

Sig Strikes

33 / 80

59%

Sig Str %

36.5%

82 / 130

Total Strikes

38 / 88

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sabah Homasi	27 / 57	32 / 63	2 / 2
1	Tim Means	27 / 56	38 / 68	0 / 0
2	Sabah Homasi	6 / 23	6 / 25	0 / 0
2	Tim Means	44 / 62	44 / 62	0 / 0

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29

Sabah Homasi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3