Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Neil Seery has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Neil SeeryL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 16L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 17 Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Neil SeeryMetricLouis Smolka
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Neil SeeryLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Neil Seery(7 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -63.8|Blue +63.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -78.0|Blue +78.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Neil SeeryTargetLouis Smolka
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Neil Seery edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:42Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:18
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:18Control
Round 3Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:03
8Sig. strikes
5Takedowns
4:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
