Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25 Joe DuffyL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PoirierMetricJoe Duffy
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.67Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin PoirierJoe Duffy
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +107.3|Blue -107.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin PoirierTargetJoe Duffy
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns1
Control1:37
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control4:22
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:23
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
