Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricRafael Dos Anjos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Donald CerroneRafael Dos Anjos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -61.9|Blue +61.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Donald CerroneTargetRafael Dos Anjos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:06Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:09Control
Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
