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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas
Elo1490

Ricardo LamasvsMatt GriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:41

Model Prediction: Matt Grice wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Grice at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Grice has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas
Red Corner
VS
Matt Grice
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1493
Elo
1490
44
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest
Matt Grice
oldest →
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Jun 12
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricMatt Grice
3.13
Strikes / min
4.09
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
2.69
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
2.19
46%
Takedown defense
82%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes— vs 25.8Takedowns— vs 1.0Sub Atts— vs 0.25Form0.0 vs 0.0
Ricardo LamasMatt Grice

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Matt Grice(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetMatt Grice

By target zone

9
39% acc · 56%
Head
4
17% acc · 67%
1
50% acc · 6%
Body
1
33% acc · 17%
6
86% acc · 38%
Leg
1
25% acc · 17%

By position

12
52% acc · 75%
Distance
6
22% acc · 100%
3
75% acc · 19%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
20% acc · 6%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ricardo Lamas rounds
0
even
0
Matt Grice rounds
Round 1Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:47
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 32
Sig Strikes
6 / 30
50%
Sig Str %
20%
16 / 32
Total Strikes
18 / 42
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
33%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:47
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Grice6 / 3018 / 420 / 10
1Ricardo Lamas16 / 3216 / 321 / 30

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Matt Grice

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3