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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1357

Dustin OrtizvsWillie GatesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:58

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Ortiz has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Willie Gates has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Willie Gates has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Willie Gates

Blue Corner

-480

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+383

(21%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

165.1 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Willie Gates

oldest →

SUBvs John Moraga · Dec 14

KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricWillie Gates

2.94

Strikes / min

1.80

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

56%

Strike defense

38%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizWillie Gates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.6|Blue -134.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +232.0|Blue -232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetWillie Gates

By target zone

69% acc · 82%

Head

26% acc · 38%

81% acc · 14%

Body

58% acc · 54%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

22% acc · 7%

Distance

37% acc · 77%

81% acc · 14%

Clinch

60% acc · 23%

85% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Willie Gates rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:50

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control4:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control2:30

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 129

Sig Strikes

13 / 32

67.7%

Sig Str %

38.3%

171 / 216

Total Strikes

24 / 43

4 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

54%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Willie Gates	6 / 14	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Ortiz	14 / 26	45 / 61	2 / 4	0
2	Willie Gates	6 / 15	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Ortiz	31 / 42	54 / 65	1 / 8	1
3	Willie Gates	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Ortiz	47 / 61	72 / 90	1 / 1	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Willie Gates

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4