Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demetrious Johnson has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demetrious Johnson
oldest →W
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16W
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17L
vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18 Ali Bagautinov
oldest →W
vs John Lineker · Feb 14L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15W
vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demetrious JohnsonMetricAli Bagautinov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.77Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demetrious JohnsonAli Bagautinov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demetrious JohnsonTargetAli Bagautinov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
5
Demetrious Johnson rounds
Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:13
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:49Control
Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:06
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:56Control
Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:25
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 4Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:07
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:08Control
Round 5Demetrious Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:34
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
