Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1393

Elo1493

Junior Dos SantosvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:43

Style matchupJunior Dos Santos: StrikervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Junior Dos Santos

Red Corner

Alistair Overeem

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1393

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Junior Dos SantosMetricAlistair Overeem

4.49

Strikes / min

3.67

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

56%

Strike defense

57%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

1.42

81%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Junior Dos SantosAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.5|Blue +100.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Junior Dos SantosTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

41% acc · 55%

Head

65% acc · 34%

58% acc · 32%

Body

70% acc · 22%

60% acc · 14%

Leg

88% acc · 44%

By position

48% acc · 100%

Distance

72% acc · 88%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Junior Dos Santos rounds

even

Alistair Overeem rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 46

Sig Strikes

32 / 43

47%

Sig Str %

72.5%

22 / 46

Total Strikes

32 / 43

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alistair Overeem	9 / 13	9 / 13	0 / 1
1	Junior Dos Santos	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	23 / 30	23 / 30	0 / 0
2	Junior Dos Santos	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 0

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20