Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Johnson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael Johnson
oldest →L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26 Melvin Guillard
oldest →L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael JohnsonMetricMelvin Guillard
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.49evenly matched on net striking+1.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael JohnsonMelvin Guillard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Johnson(10 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +12.2|Blue -12.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael JohnsonTargetMelvin Guillard
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:14
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Michael Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
