← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1456

Elo1496

Jorge MasvidalvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jorge Masvidal has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1456

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricNate Diaz

4.05

Strikes / min

4.57

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

64%

Strike defense

52%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

1.05

72%

Takedown defense

41%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.0|Blue +40.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

57% acc · 70%

Head

31% acc · 53%

77% acc · 24%

Body

57% acc · 28%

88% acc · 6%

Leg

89% acc · 19%

By position

57% acc · 46%

Distance

36% acc · 77%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

77% acc · 23%

65% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control2:58

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control2:05

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control1:53

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

112 / 179

Sig Strikes

43 / 104

62.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

114 / 184

Total Strikes

125 / 194

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:56

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Diaz	13 / 27	34 / 52	0 / 0
1	Jorge Masvidal	35 / 54	37 / 57	0 / 0
2	Nate Diaz	11 / 31	34 / 56	0 / 0
2	Jorge Masvidal	39 / 58	39 / 60	1 / 1
3	Nate Diaz	19 / 46	57 / 86	0 / 2
3	Jorge Masvidal	38 / 67	38 / 67	0 / 0

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18