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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1429

Alexander HernandezvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:43

Style matchupAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Hernandez

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1523

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander HernandezMetricDonald Cerrone

4.23

Strikes / min

4.41

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

59%

Strike defense

53%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.16

68%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexander HernandezDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.6|Blue -94.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander HernandezTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

34% acc · 41%

Head

43% acc · 73%

60% acc · 51%

Body

82% acc · 23%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

39% acc · 65%

Distance

42% acc · 65%

74% acc · 35%

Clinch

64% acc · 18%

Ground

88% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexander Hernandez rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:08

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 105

Sig Strikes

80 / 162

47.5%

Sig Str %

49.5%

54 / 110

Total Strikes

81 / 163

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	36 / 87	37 / 88	1 / 1
1	Alexander Hernandez	31 / 71	35 / 75	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	44 / 75	44 / 75	0 / 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	18 / 34	19 / 35	0 / 2

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37