Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- John Dodson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Marlon Moraes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
- John Dodson has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Dodson
oldest →W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20 Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John DodsonMetricMarlon Moraes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.38evenly matched on net striking-1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John DodsonMarlon Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Dodson(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +73.2|Blue -73.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John DodsonTargetMarlon Moraes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Marlon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control0:19
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 3John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:07
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
