Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Anthony Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Anthony Johnson
oldest →L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15W
KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15W
KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17 Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Anthony JohnsonMetricRogerio Nogueira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Anthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Anthony Johnson(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +104.0|Blue -104.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -448.0|Blue +448.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Anthony JohnsonTargetRogerio Nogueira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
