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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Henry Cejudo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1472

Elo1491

Henry CejudovsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:25

Style matchupHenry Cejudo: Well-roundedvsWilson Reis: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Wilson Reis

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1472

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Wilson Reis

oldest →

DECvs Ulka Sasaki · Feb 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricWilson Reis

3.83

Strikes / min

1.83

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

57%

Strike defense

55%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

5.15

72%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.4|Blue +19.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

51% acc · 71%

Head

17% acc · 80%

88% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

59% acc · 71%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Wilson Reis rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control0:41

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 58

Sig Strikes

5 / 25

70.5%

Sig Str %

33.5%

39 / 64

Total Strikes

5 / 25

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wilson Reis	4 / 23	4 / 23	0 / 1
1	Henry Cejudo	26 / 49	31 / 55	2 / 2
2	Wilson Reis	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	8 / 9	8 / 9	0 / 0

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13