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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rodolfo Vieira won · SUB R1

Elo1483

Elo1492

Rodolfo VieiravsSaparbeg SafarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Saturday, March 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodolfo Vieira won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupRodolfo Vieira: WrestlervsSaparbeg Safarov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Rodolfo Vieira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodolfo Vieira at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rodolfo Vieira threatens submissions; Saparbeg Safarov has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Rodolfo Vieira has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Saparbeg Safarov has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rodolfo Vieira

Red Corner

Saparbeg Safarov

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1483

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rodolfo VieiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Feb 24

vs Andre Petroski · Feb 25

vs Tresean Gore · Aug 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · Nov 25

DECvs Eric McConico · Apr 26

latest

Saparbeg Safarov

oldest →

KOvs Gian Villante · Dec 16

SUBvs Tyson Pedro · Feb 18

vs Nicolae Negumereanu · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rodolfo VieiraMetricSaparbeg Safarov

3.43

Strikes / min

4.03

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

49%

Strike defense

47%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

2.52

60%

Takedown defense

33%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rodolfo VieiraSaparbeg Safarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rodolfo Vieira(10 fights)Saparbeg Safarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rodolfo VieiraTargetSaparbeg Safarov

By target zone

50% acc · 100%

Head

29% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

71% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rodolfo Vieira rounds

even

Saparbeg Safarov rounds

Round 1Rodolfo Vieira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:53

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 10

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

50%

Sig Str %

50%

10 / 15

Total Strikes

7 / 12

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saparbeg Safarov	5 / 10	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Rodolfo Vieira	5 / 10	10 / 15	2 / 2	1

Rodolfo Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Saparbeg Safarov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4