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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Vaughan Lee won · U-DEC R3
Elo1355
Vaughan Lee
Elo1352
Motonobu Tezuka

Vaughan LeevsMotonobu TezukaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Vaughan Lee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Motonobu Tezuka wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Vaughan Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Motonobu Tezuka at +117 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vaughan Lee has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Vaughan Lee has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Motonobu Tezuka (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vaughan Lee
Red Corner
VS
Motonobu Tezuka
Blue Corner
-127
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+117
(46%)
1355
Elo
1352
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vaughan LeeL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12
L
SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13
W
vs Nam Phan · Mar 14
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14
L
vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15
latest
Motonobu Tezuka
oldest →
L
vs Alex Caceres · Nov 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vaughan LeeMetricMotonobu Tezuka
3.47
Strikes / min
0.87
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
70%
Strike defense
51%
0.81
TDs / 15 min
1.50
72%
Takedown defense
0%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.40Δ 3.33 — meaningful gap-1.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1483Strikes17.0 vs 22.0Takedowns1.3 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.33 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -1.0
Vaughan LeeMotonobu Tezuka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Vaughan Lee(8 fights)Motonobu Tezuka(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +122.0|Blue -122.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vaughan LeeTargetMotonobu Tezuka

By target zone

7
25% acc · 35%
Head
1
4% acc · 25%
9
64% acc · 45%
Body
0
4
67% acc · 20%
Leg
3
43% acc · 75%

By position

6
21% acc · 30%
Distance
4
12% acc · 100%
12
67% acc · 60%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 10%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vaughan Lee rounds
1
even
1
Motonobu Tezuka rounds
Round 1Motonobu Tezuka edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:54Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control1:12
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:58Control
Round 3Vaughan Lee edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:59Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 48
Sig Strikes
4 / 35
42%
Sig Str %
12.3%
164 / 192
Total Strikes
17 / 56
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 15
—
TD %
8.3%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:12
Ctrl Time
7:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Motonobu Tezuka2 / 1011 / 210 / 50
1Vaughan Lee5 / 1148 / 540 / 00
2Motonobu Tezuka1 / 94 / 161 / 41
2Vaughan Lee6 / 1431 / 390 / 00
3Motonobu Tezuka1 / 162 / 190 / 60
3Vaughan Lee9 / 2385 / 990 / 00

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8

Motonobu Tezuka

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2