Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Johnny Bedford has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Bryan Caraway has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18 Johnny BedfordL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Louis Gaudinot · Dec 11W
KOvs Marcos Vinicius · Dec 12L
KOvs Cody Gibson · Jun 14L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Sep 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan CarawayMetricJohnny Bedford
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.08Δ 3.86 — meaningful gap+2.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bryan CarawayJohnny Bedford
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Caraway(10 fights)Johnny Bedford(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +15.5|Blue -15.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryan CarawayTargetJohnny Bedford
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control1:40
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control2:12
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control2:28
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
