Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14 Paul FelderL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny CastilloMetricPaul Felder
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Danny CastilloPaul Felder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Castillo(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -35.8|Blue +35.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Danny CastilloTargetPaul Felder
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Felder edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paul Felder edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
