Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robert Whittaker has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colton SmithL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Nov 13L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14 Robert Whittaker
oldest →W
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24L
vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colton SmithMetricRobert Whittaker
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.66Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colton SmithRobert Whittaker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colton Smith(4 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -157.8|Blue +157.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colton SmithTargetRobert Whittaker
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colton Smith edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
