Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1393

Roy NelsonvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Junior Dos Santos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Junior Dos Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Roy Nelson

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1491

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roy NelsonMetricJunior Dos Santos

2.18

Strikes / min

4.49

4.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

46%

Strike defense

56%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.30

65%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.61Δ 3.77 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roy NelsonJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roy Nelson(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.1|Blue -98.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roy NelsonTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

38% acc · 95%

Head

41% acc · 74%

100% acc · 3%

Body

75% acc · 25%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 1%

By position

39% acc · 88%

Distance

109

46% acc · 84%

45% acc · 13%

Clinch

49% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roy Nelson rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:57

Knockdowns0

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:34

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 101

Sig Strikes

130 / 282

38.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

40 / 101

Total Strikes

138 / 291

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Dos Santos	49 / 95	50 / 96	0 / 0
1	Roy Nelson	11 / 24	11 / 24	0 / 3
2	Junior Dos Santos	27 / 80	30 / 84	0 / 1
2	Roy Nelson	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 4
3	Junior Dos Santos	54 / 107	58 / 111	1 / 1
3	Roy Nelson	21 / 46	21 / 46	0 / 0

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19