Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15 John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricJohn Moraga
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris CariasoJohn Moraga
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -135.7|Blue +135.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +24.0|Blue -24.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris CariasoTargetJohn Moraga
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:02
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:24
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:10
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
