Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Hughes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- BJ Penn has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Hughes
oldest →W
KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10W
SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10L
KOvs Josh Koscheck · Sep 11 BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HughesMetricBJ Penn
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.78Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt HughesBJ Penn
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hughes(4 fights)BJ Penn(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -21.5|Blue +21.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1BJ Penn edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
