Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rousimar Palhares has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Dan Miller has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rousimar Palhares
oldest →W
SUBvs David Branch · Mar 11W
SUBvs Mike Massenzio · Jan 12L
KOvs Alan Belcher · May 12L
KOvs Hector Lombard · Dec 12W
SUBvs Mike Pierce · Oct 13 Dan MillerL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10L
vs Nate Marquardt · Mar 11W
SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12L
KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13L
vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rousimar PalharesMetricDan Miller
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.29evenly matched on net striking-1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rousimar PalharesDan Miller
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rousimar Palhares(8 fights)Dan Miller(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +135.3|Blue -135.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +16.0|Blue -16.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rousimar PalharesTargetDan Miller
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Rousimar Palhares rounds
Round 1Rousimar Palhares edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:43
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Rousimar Palhares edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control4:38
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
