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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Waldo Cortes Acosta won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1562

Elo1519

Waldo Cortes AcostavsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Waldo Cortes Acosta won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:48

Style matchupWaldo Cortes Acosta: Pressure fightervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Spann enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Waldo Cortes Acosta is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Waldo Cortes Acosta has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1562

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

oldest →

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Aug 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Nov 25

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Nov 25

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jan 26

DECvs Alexander Volkov · May 26

latest

Ryan SpannW3 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Waldo Cortes AcostaMetricRyan Spann

5.34

Strikes / min

3.11

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

54%

Strike defense

43%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.21

73%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.71Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Waldo Cortes AcostaRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Waldo Cortes Acosta(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.9|Blue -42.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Waldo Cortes AcostaTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

58% acc · 85%

Head

16% acc · 48%

67% acc · 6%

Body

56% acc · 22%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

59% acc · 89%

Distance

26% acc · 96%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

67% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Waldo Cortes Acosta rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:49

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 111

Sig Strikes

23 / 86

58.5%

Sig Str %

28%

77 / 123

Total Strikes

24 / 87

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Spann	12 / 33	13 / 34	0 / 1
1	Waldo Cortes Acosta	27 / 49	31 / 53	0 / 1
2	Ryan Spann	11 / 53	11 / 53	0 / 1
2	Waldo Cortes Acosta	39 / 62	46 / 70	0 / 0

Waldo Cortes Acosta

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17