Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke BarnattL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13W
KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14L
vs Sean Strickland · May 14 Roger NarvaezL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Patrick Cummins · Jun 14L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke BarnattMetricRoger Narvaez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Luke BarnattRoger Narvaez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -135.7|Blue +135.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Luke BarnattTargetRoger Narvaez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Roger Narvaez edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Luke Barnatt edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Roger Narvaez edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:42Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
