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Lightweight
3 Rounds
David Teymur won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1491
David Teymur
Elo1358

David TeymurvsJason NovelliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

David Teymur won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:25

Model Prediction: David Teymur wins(72.7%)

Actual result: David Teymur wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Teymur at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason Novelli has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jason Novelli has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors David Teymur (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

David Teymur
Red Corner
VS
Jason Novelli
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1491
Elo
1358
37
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

David Teymur
oldest →
W
KOvs Martin Svensson · Feb 16
W
vs Lando Vannata · Mar 17
W
vs Drakkar Klose · Dec 17
W
vs Nik Lentz · Jun 18
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Feb 19
latest
Jason Novelli
oldest →
L
DECvs Polo Reyes · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

David TeymurMetricJason Novelli
4.69
Strikes / min
1.73
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
55%
Strike defense
66%
0.94
TDs / 15 min
0.70
77%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap-1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes38.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
David TeymurJason Novelli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
David Teymur(6 fights)Jason Novelli(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +133.1|Blue -133.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

David TeymurTargetJason Novelli

By target zone

10
25% acc · 38%
Head
3
17% acc · 38%
5
83% acc · 19%
Body
2
40% acc · 25%
11
73% acc · 42%
Leg
3
60% acc · 38%

By position

26
45% acc · 100%
Distance
7
28% acc · 88%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
33% acc · 13%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
David Teymur rounds
0
even
0
Jason Novelli rounds
Round 1David Teymur edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:01
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2David Teymur edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
26 / 61
Sig Strikes
8 / 28
52%
Sig Str %
30%
26 / 61
Total Strikes
9 / 29
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Novelli6 / 227 / 230 / 00
1David Teymur20 / 5220 / 520 / 00
2Jason Novelli2 / 62 / 60 / 00
2David Teymur6 / 96 / 90 / 10

David Teymur

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

Jason Novelli

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2