Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brian Ortega
oldest →W
vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Diego Lopes
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26W
KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brian OrtegaMetricDiego Lopes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.54Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap-0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brian OrtegaDiego Lopes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brian Ortega(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -60.7|Blue +60.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brian OrtegaTargetDiego Lopes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Diego Lopes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:03Control
Round 2Diego Lopes edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 3Diego Lopes edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:06
55Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
