Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexandr Romanov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rodrigo Nascimento has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
- Rodrigo Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexandr Romanov
oldest →W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22L
vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Jun 24 Rodrigo Nascimento
oldest →W
KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21W
vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexandr RomanovMetricRodrigo Nascimento
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.65Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-0.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexandr RomanovRodrigo Nascimento
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.1|Blue -6.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexandr RomanovTargetRodrigo Nascimento
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Rodrigo Nascimento rounds
Round 1Alexandr Romanov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns4
Control4:47
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alexandr Romanov edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:46
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Alexandr Romanov edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
