Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cole Miller threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cole MillerL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 13W
SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14L
vs Max Holloway · Feb 15L
vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16 Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cole MillerMetricAlex Caceres
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.88Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap+1.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cole MillerAlex Caceres
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cole Miller(10 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -141.0|Blue +141.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +350.0|Blue -350.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cole MillerTargetAlex Caceres
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alex Caceres edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control0:52
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:13Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Alex Caceres edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
46Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 3Alex Caceres edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control1:41
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:22Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
